risicohorizon

Risicohorizon refers to the forward-looking time frame used in risk assessment to identify and manage potential risks that could affect an organization over multiple future periods. It emphasizes not only immediate threats but also longer-term uncertainties that may emerge from changing technologies, demographics, regulation, and environment. The concept is used in both corporate governance and public policy to align risk management with strategic planning.

The term combines the Dutch words risico and horizon and is commonly used in Dutch-language risk management discourse. In English-language texts, the equivalent term is often described as "risk horizon" or "horizon of risk."

Core elements include horizon scanning to detect emerging trends, scenario planning to explore alternative futures, early-warning indicators to signal potential shifts, and integration with risk appetite and governance structures. It covers both external drivers (market volatility, climate change, regulatory reform) and internal drivers (process changes, workforce dynamics).

Methodology involves practitioners mapping risks along different time horizons, typically near-term (1-2 years), mid-term (3-5 or 5-10), and long-term (10+). They develop scenarios, stress tests, and indicators, then incorporate findings into strategic decision-making, budgeting, and resilience planning.

Applications and limitations: risicohorizon is used by corporations, financial institutions, and governments to support long-range planning, capital allocation, and risk mitigation. Limitations include high uncertainty at longer horizons, data gaps, and reliance on assumptions.

See also: risk management, horizon scanning, scenario planning, resilience, strategic planning.