realisatiekansen

Realisatiekansen, or realisatiekansen in Dutch, is a concept used in risk management, project planning and strategic decision making. It refers to the probability that a plan, project or policy will be realized and delivered as intended, given the current conditions, assumptions and constraints. Realisatiekansen are used to assess feasibility, prioritize actions and allocate resources, often alongside cost, impact and time estimates.

Assessment of realisatiekansen can be qualitative or quantitative. In qualitative approaches, experts assign categories such as low, medium or high, sometimes with subfactors. In quantitative methods, probabilities are estimated for key milestones or outcomes and can be combined using models such as decision trees, fault trees, Bayesian networks or Monte Carlo simulations. The overall realization probability is typically dependent on multiple interrelated factors and may be updated as new information becomes available.

Several factors influence realisatiekansen. Technical feasibility, cost and schedule realism, availability of funding and resources, regulatory and permitting processes, political and stakeholder support, and dependencies on external conditions all play a role. Moderate to strong governance, clear ownership, and a robust risk management process tend to improve realization chances.

Applications include informing go/no-go decisions in stage-gate processes, prioritizing projects in a portfolio, and shaping risk reserves or contingency plans. Realisatiekansen are estimates and should be viewed as inputs to decision making rather than guarantees; they can change with new data, shifts in context, or changes to plans.

See also: risk assessment, project management, real options analysis, probability forecasting.