horizonstructuur

Horizonstructuur is a concept in foresight and strategic planning that refers to the organized structure of information about the future across multiple time horizons. The term blends Dutch roots: horizon meaning “horizon” and structuur meaning “structure,” signaling a systematic arrangement of forecasts, indicators, and scenarios by time frame.

Concept and scope: Horizonstructuur typically partitions the future into near-term (0–2 years), mid-term (2–5 years), and long-term (5–20+ years). Within each horizon, signals such as technological trends, demographic shifts, policy developments, and market dynamics are collected and linked to potential outcomes. The structure emphasizes dependencies: how early signals in the near-term may unfold to shape the mid-term landscape and beyond.

Methodology: Practitioners identify drivers and signals through literature reviews, expert interviews, and data analysis; assign each item to a horizon based on expected timing and uncertainty; develop scenario narratives or generative paths; and visualize the result as a layered diagram or map that shows drivers, uncertainties, and outcomes across horizons.

Applications: The horizonstructuur is used in corporate strategy, urban and regional planning, climate and energy policy, and technology foresight. It supports communicating risk, aligning initiatives across departments, and detecting early warning signals that merit action.

Limitations and reception: Critics note potential oversimplification, bias in horizon assignment, and instability as new information emerges. The value lies in a shared mental model and disciplined update process rather than in a single forecast.

See also: horizon scanning, scenario planning, futures studies, foresight methods.