gjennomsnittsestimeringer

Gjennomsnittsestimeringer is a Norwegian term used to describe the calculation and interpretation of average estimates, typically referring to the average time required for tasks, activities, or projects. It is a generic concept found in fields such as project management, operations research, and data analysis, where timing variability needs to be summarized.

The core idea is to derive a representative value for estimates collected from various sources, such as historical data or expert judgment. The simplest form is the arithmetic mean, but other approaches can be used depending on data quality and objectives. For robustness against outliers, a median or a trimmed mean may be preferred. In cases where estimates carry different levels of certainty or task sizes, a weighted mean can be applied.

Data sources for gjennomsnittsestimeringer include historical project records, expert estimates obtained through methods like the Delphi technique, and historical similar tasks. It is common to evaluate estimation accuracy by comparing averages to actual outcomes and using metrics such as mean absolute error or root mean squared error.

Applications include planning and budgeting, capacity planning, and risk assessment. A typical workflow involves collecting estimates, computing the average, applying any necessary adjustments for scope or team changes, and using the result to forecast future durations. Regular re-estimation with updated data helps track estimation bias and improve forecasting over time.

Limitations include potential biases (for example, optimism bias), the impact of scope changes, and the inherent uncertainty in estimates. Gjennomsnittsestimeringer should be used alongside uncertainty measures and scenario analysis to support informed decision-making.