eventchain

Event chain, in risk analysis and project management, refers to a modeling approach that focuses on sequences of uncertain events and their cascading effects on project outcomes. It combines qualitative identification of risk events with quantitative propagation of uncertainty to reveal how events trigger others and alter timelines, costs, or performance. The term is used in various industries, including construction, engineering, software development, and safety-critical domains, to support dynamic risk assessment and decision making.

In an event-chain model, risk events are identified and characterized by probabilities, duration impacts, and potential cost or resource consequences. Each event can trigger one or more subsequent events, creating a network of interdependent chains. The model often employs probability distributions for event occurrence and impact, and uses simulation techniques such as Monte Carlo to propagate uncertainty through the network. Outputs typically include distributions of project duration, cost, resource needs, and metrics like the probability of meeting deadlines, expected delay, and the sensitivity of outcomes to specific events.

Event chains are used to explore how uncertainties unfold over time, how delays propagate, and how risk mitigation actions affect overall results. They support proactive planning by highlighting critical chain reactions, enabling scenario analysis, contingency planning, and risk prioritization. Limitations include the reliance on accurate elicitation of event probabilities and dependencies, which can be challenging to obtain. The method can also become complex as the network of events grows, requiring specialized tools and careful validation of the model structure.

See also: Monte Carlo simulation, risk management, project scheduling.