Szenarios

Szenarios is the German term for a set of hypothetical futures used to understand possible developments and support decision-making. While the more common plural in standard German is Szenarien, Szenarios is also found in technical writing and informal usage, and English texts often use scenarios. The concept originated in strategic planning and has since spread to business, government, science, and culture. A scenario describes a coherent sequence of events, conditions, or environments that could unfold under certain assumptions, rather than a specific prediction.

In practice, Szenarien are used to explore uncertainty by presenting multiple plausible futures. In business and public policy, scenario planning begins with framing an issue, identifying driving forces (economic, political, technological, social), and selecting a logic that links these forces to distinct outcomes. Analysts then develop narratives—descriptive storylines that illustrate how events might unfold—and, where appropriate, couple them with quantitative indicators to compare potential impacts.

Common types include exploratory scenarios (possible future developments), normative scenarios (desired futures and pathways to achieve them), and stress-test or extreme scenarios (low-probability but high-impact conditions). The output is a set of diverging stories intended to broaden thinking, reveal vulnerabilities, and inform strategy, policy, or risk management.

Limitations include reliance on assumptions, potential bias in driver selection, and the risk of overinterpretation of scenarios as forecasts. Best practice emphasizes methodological transparency, explicit uncertainties, and regular revision as conditions change.