Skenaariomenetelmä

Skenaariomenetelmä is a strategic planning tool used to explore and anticipate possible future developments. It involves constructing several plausible future scenarios, often referred to as "stories" or "visions," that represent different potential outcomes. These scenarios are not predictions but rather detailed descriptions of possible worlds, focusing on key drivers of change and their potential impacts.

The core of the method lies in identifying critical uncertainties and driving forces that are likely to shape the future. These forces can be economic, social, technological, environmental, or political. By combining different possibilities for these forces, a set of distinct and internally consistent scenarios are created. Each scenario typically explores a range of possible events, trends, and their interactions, leading to a unique future state.

The purpose of using skenaariomenetelmä is to enhance an organization's or individual's preparedness and adaptability. By considering a range of futures, decision-makers can identify potential risks and opportunities, test existing strategies against different possibilities, and develop more robust and flexible plans. It encourages critical thinking about the future and helps to avoid complacency by highlighting the potential consequences of inaction or poor foresight. The method is iterative and often involves workshops and expert consultation to develop comprehensive and insightful scenarios.