Scenarioanalüüs

Scenarioanalüüs is a strategic planning method used to explore and understand potential future developments. It involves creating a set of plausible future scenarios, which are not predictions, but rather consistent narratives of how the future might unfold. These scenarios are typically based on identifying key driving forces and uncertainties that are likely to shape the future. By developing a range of scenarios, organizations can move beyond a single, most likely future and consider a broader spectrum of possibilities.

The process usually begins with identifying the scope of the analysis and the time horizon. Next, critical driving forces that will influence the future are identified. These forces can be social, technological, economic, environmental, or political (STEEP). Following this, key uncertainties are pinpointed – factors whose future development is highly unpredictable. These uncertainties are then used to construct distinct scenarios, often by combining different plausible outcomes for each uncertainty. Each scenario is fleshed out into a coherent story, describing the world in that future state.

Once the scenarios are developed, they are used for strategic insight. This can involve testing existing strategies against each scenario to identify vulnerabilities or opportunities. It can also help in developing more robust strategies that are flexible enough to cope with a range of potential futures, or in identifying early warning signals for specific scenarios. Scenarioanalüüs encourages flexible thinking and proactive decision-making in the face of uncertainty, helping organizations to anticipate change and adapt more effectively.