Risknyttaanalys

Risknyttaanalys, or risk-benefit analysis, is a systematic approach used to evaluate the balance between positive outcomes and negative consequences of a policy, project, or intervention. It aims to inform decisions by weighing the expected benefits against the expected harms under uncertainty.

The method is applied across sectors such as public policy, health, technology, environment, and finance. It considers not only financial costs and gains but also social, ethical, environmental, and safety impacts.

A typical analysis combines qualitative and quantitative elements. Key components include identifying relevant risks and benefits, estimating their likelihoods and magnitudes, and, where possible, monetizing outcomes to compute a net value. Where monetization is difficult, non-monetary scales or qualitative judgments may be used. Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis are often conducted to explore how results change with different assumptions and data quality. The assessment should document data sources, assumptions, discounting for time, and uncertainties.

Risknyttaanalys differs from a standard risk assessment, which focuses primarily on the probability and severity of adverse events, and from a cost-benefit analysis, which may exclude non-financial effects or treat them with different weights. A risknyttaanalys emphasizes net benefit or net utility and supports the selection among alternatives based on expected value under uncertainty.

Limitations include data gaps and the challenge of valuing intangible outcomes, as well as subjective judgments in weighting benefits versus harms. Transparency in methods and stakeholder engagement are recommended practices to mitigate bias.

Common applications include regulatory approvals, resource allocation, environmental impact assessments, health technology assessments, and program evaluation. See also related topics such as cost-benefit analysis, risk assessment, and decision analysis.