Reserveberegning

Reserveberegning is the process of estimating the reserves that an insurer or pension fund must hold to cover future claims and other obligations arising from policies and contracts. The aim is to ensure solvency, comply with regulatory requirements, and support pricing and risk management. Technical provisions or reserves typically include claim reserves for both reported and unreported claims, and premium reserves for unearned premiums. In life and long-term business, calculations may also involve the present value of future benefit payments, often with an applied discount rate and, depending on the regulatory framework, a risk margin.

Common methods used in reserveberegning include traditional actuarial techniques and more forward-looking models. Development triangle methods (such as chain-ladder) estimate how claims develop over time, while methods like Bornhuetter-Ferguson and stochastic reserving models provide alternatives that incorporate uncertainties and external factors. In life insurance, reserve calculations frequently require discounting expected future cash flows and may include a risk margin in line with regulatory requirements. Important components are IBNER (incurred but not yet reported) and IBNR (incurred but not reported) reserves, which capture development beyond the latest data.

Data quality, assumptions, and governance are central to reserveberegning. Actuaries rely on historical claims experience, anticipated future inflation, lapse rates, and other drivers, and they document methods, perform backtesting, and provide actuarial opinions for internal and external reporting. Challenges include changing claim patterns, catastrophic events, and regulatory changes, which necessitate regular updates, sensitivity analyses, and ongoing validation of reserves.