Localescenarier

Localescenarier are scenario-based planning exercises conducted at the local level to explore plausible futures and inform decisions in municipalities, counties, and regional authorities. They combine qualitative narratives with quantitative data to show how different developments and hazards could affect local systems such as housing, transport, energy, water, health, and public services.

The scope of localescenarier typically includes climate change impacts, demographic changes, economic conditions, infrastructure resilience, land use, and emergency preparedness. They are used to test policy options, prioritize investments, and improve preparedness for extreme events, while supporting long-term planning and communication with residents.

The development process usually involves stakeholder participation, data gathering, and the creation of diverse scenarios. Methods often include storylines, modelling and simulations, stress tests, and workshops that translate complex information into actionable insights. Localescenarier are commonly aligned with national risk assessments and climate adaptation strategies, and they are updated as new data become available.

Applications and benefits include strengthening resilience, guiding spatial planning, informing budget decisions, and enhancing collaboration among agencies, businesses, and communities. Limitations include uncertainty in projections, reliance on assumptions, and resource requirements for regular maintenance and updates. As planning tools, localescenarier complement probabilistic risk assessments and are most effective when integrated into iterative decision-making processes.

See also: scenario planning, risk assessment, climate adaptation, resilience.