Incuren

Incuren is a neologism used in discussions of risk, systems theory, and policy analysis to denote the process by which a sequence of small, often overlooked actions or events increases a system's susceptibility to a negative outcome over time. It emphasizes cumulative effects rather than a single, identifiable incident.

Definition and scope. Incuren describes how minor disturbances—such as tiny policy departures, marginal delays, or small technical debt—can progressively shift a system’s state, making larger failures more probable or severe. The concept highlights path dependence, where early, low-impact steps set the stage for later, disproportionate consequences. It is frequently invoked in analyses of complex adaptive systems, organizational risk, and infrastructure management.

Origins and usage. The term appears in recent glossaries and speculative risk literature dating from the early 2020s. It is used to supplement discussions of resilience and emergent risk by focusing attention on the slow, accumulating dynamics that precede observable crises. Because incuren often involves reversible or barely noticeable actions, its detection relies on longitudinal monitoring and cumulative indicators rather than single-event alarms.

Applications. In information security, incuren may describe how multiple seemingly harmless vulnerabilities or patches interact to raise overall exposure. In finance, small, repeated risk exposures can compound to create material downside. In environmental planning, gradual policy fragmentation or deferred maintenance can cumulatively increase vulnerability to extreme events.

Criticism and relation. Some scholars argue that incuren overlaps with established ideas such as cumulative risk, systemic risk, or path dependence, and caution against over-specifying a term. See also: incur, cumulative risk, systemic risk.