20scenarier

20scenarier is a term used in futures studies and strategic planning to describe a scenario-building approach that explores twenty distinct plausible futures. By mapping a broad set of possible developments, the method helps organizations test assumptions, reveal risks, and identify robust strategies under uncertainty.

Typically, practitioners begin with a focal issue and identify driving forces such as technology, demographics, economy, environment, and governance. They select a small set of key uncertainties and then craft twenty connected narratives, or storylines, each illustrating different combinations of drivers. The aim is to maintain internal coherence while ensuring diversity of outcomes, and to avoid predicting a single future. Stakeholders may review and refine the scenarios, and analysts may extract implications, indicators, and early-warning signals that signal which scenarios are unfolding.

20scenarier is not a fixed standard but a commonly used configuration in scenario planning. The number twenty offers a balance between breadth and depth. The approach draws on longer-standing futures methods associated with scenario planning, which gained prominence in corporate and government planning in the late 20th century, notably through the Shell scenario projects and the work of futures researchers such as Peter Schwartz.

Critics note that creating twenty credible narratives can be resource-intensive, that scenarios may become self-confirming if not carefully tested, and that the method remains a qualitative tool whose results depend on the assumptions and storytelling quality. It is typically used in conjunction with quantitative trend analysis and stress testing.