stormscenarios

Stormscenarios are structured representations of possible storm events used to inform planning, risk assessment, and research. They differ from real-time weather forecasts in that they focus on plausible sequences of storms over a defined planning horizon, including extreme but physically credible events. The purpose is to explore potential impacts under varying conditions and to support decision-making across sectors such as infrastructure design, emergency management, and insurance.

Development typically proceeds through several steps: defining objectives and scope, selecting storm types (for example tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, severe convective storms), assembling data from historical catalogs, reanalysis, and satellite observations, choosing a modeling approach (statistical, dynamical, or hybrid), generating an ensemble of storm realizations, and producing hazard maps and metrics (wind, surge, precipitation, flood depths). Stormscenarios can be regional or project-specific and may include temporal sequences, storm intensities, landfall locations, and compound events.

Applications include coastal defense planning, flood risk management, building codes and resilience standards, insurer risk models, and disaster preparedness exercises. They enable stress-testing of systems, economic impact assessments, and cost-benefit analyses under different climate and exposure scenarios.

Limitations include the inherent uncertainty of storm prediction, non-stationarity due to climate change, data gaps, and challenges in downscaling to fine resolutions. Validation requires back-testing against historical events and careful calibration. Transparent documentation of assumptions and uncertainties is essential.

See also extreme event modeling, hazard assessment, climate adaptation planning, and risk management.