scenariotpäätöksenteko

Scenario-based decision-making is a strategic planning process that involves developing and analyzing plausible future scenarios to inform current decisions. This approach acknowledges that the future is uncertain and that a single, definitive forecast is often unreliable. Instead, it explores a range of potential future environments, considering different driving forces and their potential interactions.

The process typically begins with identifying key uncertainties and driving forces that could shape the future. These forces might include technological advancements, economic trends, social shifts, environmental changes, or political developments. Based on these factors, a set of distinct and plausible future scenarios are constructed. Each scenario represents a coherent and internally consistent vision of how the future might unfold.

Once scenarios are developed, decision-makers evaluate how their current strategies or proposed actions would perform under each scenario. This helps to identify robust strategies that are effective across a range of possible futures, or to highlight potential vulnerabilities and risks. It also encourages flexible and adaptive planning, as decision-makers can anticipate potential challenges and opportunities associated with different futures.

The primary benefit of scenario-based decision-making is improved preparedness for uncertainty. By exploring a spectrum of possibilities, organizations can avoid being blindsided by unexpected events and can develop more resilient strategies. It fosters a more proactive rather than reactive approach to strategic planning, promoting innovation and identifying new avenues for growth or risk mitigation.