scenarieanalyse

Scenarieanalyse is a planning method used to explore plausible futures and test strategic options under uncertainty. It helps organisations anticipate changes in technology, regulation, markets, demographics, and other drivers, and to develop robust strategies rather than rely on a single forecast.

The typical process involves several steps. First, the scope and time horizon are defined, along with the decision context. Next, key drivers and uncertainties are identified and prioritised. Then scenarios are constructed, either as qualitative storylines that describe how events could unfold or as quantitative projections built from models. Each scenario describes implications for strategy, operations, and policy. After that, scenarios are compared to identify options that remain viable across different futures, and indicators or early-warning signals are established to monitor developments. Finally, decision-makers test strategies against the scenarios and refine plans accordingly.

Scenarieanalyse can be conducted in qualitative form, using narrative "storylines" to convey how drivers interact, or in quantitative form, using models and probability distributions. Common techniques and tools include STEEP analyses (social, technological, economic, environmental, political), cross-impact analysis, and scenario matrices.

Applications span various sectors, including business strategy, financial planning, climate risk and resilience assessments, energy and infrastructure planning, and public policy. Benefits include enhanced flexibility, better risk awareness, and improved resource allocation. Limitations involve subjective judgments, potential biases, the need for ongoing monitoring, and the fact that scenarios describe possibilities rather than predictions. The approach has historical roots in scenario planning, notably with Royal Dutch Shell in the mid-20th century, and remains widely used in risk management and strategic planning today.