põhiinflatsioon

Põhiinflatsioon, often translated as core inflation, is a measure of inflation that excludes certain volatile components of the consumer price index. The primary goal of excluding these items is to provide a clearer picture of the underlying, persistent trend in price changes, which is often considered more indicative of future inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The most commonly excluded items are food and energy prices. These categories are known for their significant price fluctuations due to factors like weather, geopolitical events, and supply and demand shocks. By removing their immediate impact, economists and central banks can better assess how broadly price increases are spreading throughout the economy. Other components, such as transport or housing costs, might also be excluded depending on the specific methodology used by different statistical agencies.

Central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, frequently monitor põhiinflatsioon alongside headline inflation (which includes all items). This allows them to make more informed decisions regarding interest rates and other monetary policy tools. A rising põhiinflatsioon might suggest that inflation is becoming more embedded in the economy and could persist, potentially prompting a tightening of monetary policy. Conversely, stable or falling põhiinflatsioon might indicate that the inflationary pressures are temporary or diminishing. Understanding põhiinflatsioon is crucial for analyzing economic stability and forecasting future price levels.