politikfolgenanalyse

Politikfolgenanalyse is a systematic assessment of the anticipated effects of policy proposals and programs before and after implementation, with the aim to inform decision-makers, improve design, and enhance transparency and accountability. It considers intended and unintended consequences across multiple domains (economic, social, environmental, governance) and across stakeholders.

The process typically includes problem definition, identification of policy options, and analysis of impacts using quantitative and qualitative methods: cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, distributional (equity) analysis, risk assessment, scenario analysis, and sometimes multicriteria decision analysis. Data sources range from administrative statistics to expert judgments; stakeholder consultation is common to capture values and uncertainties.

The policy cycle involvement includes scoping, assessment, reporting, and follow-up monitoring and evaluation. In many jurisdictions it is legally required for new major policies or reforms and integrated into legislative or budgetary processes. It can be conducted ex-ante (before adoption) and ex-post (after implementation) to compare predicted and actual outcomes.

Applications and challenges: widely used in environmental, health, and social policy, energy, and public administration. Limitations include uncertainty, incomplete data, challenges in valuing non-market effects, and the risk of politicization or methodological disagreement. Proponents argue it improves legitimacy; critics point to potential bias and high costs.

Related concepts: Politikfolgenabschätzung, strategic environmental assessment, and impact evaluation are related but differ in scope and timing.