forgatókönyvelemzést

Forgatókönyvelemzés, often translated as scenario analysis, is a strategic planning tool used to explore potential future outcomes. It involves developing a set of plausible future scenarios and then assessing how an organization, project, or policy might perform under each of these scenarios. The primary goal is not to predict the future with certainty, but rather to understand a range of possibilities and to identify robust strategies that are resilient across different potential futures.

The process typically begins with identifying the key drivers of change that are likely to shape the future environment. These drivers can be economic, social, technological, environmental, or political. Once identified, these drivers are combined and varied to create distinct, internally consistent, and plausible scenarios. For each scenario, the implications are then explored, considering how the subject of the analysis would be affected. This might involve considering market shifts, regulatory changes, or technological disruptions.

By examining how a strategy or plan fares under various scenarios, decision-makers can identify potential vulnerabilities and opportunities. This allows for the development of more adaptable and resilient strategies. Forgatókönyvelemzés is particularly useful in environments characterized by high uncertainty and complexity, where traditional forecasting methods may be less effective. It encourages forward-thinking and can help organizations anticipate and prepare for a wider range of futures, rather than being caught off guard by unexpected events.