forecastingrunning
Forecastingrunning is the practice of predicting running-related outcomes, such as race finishing times, weekly training progress, or injury risk, using quantitative methods. It blends sports science with statistics and machine learning to provide point estimates or probabilistic forecasts. The goal is to assist athletes, coaches, race organizers, and teams in planning and pacing.
Common inputs include historical race results, training logs (volume and intensity), physiological measurements (when available), GPS
Forecasting approaches range from traditional time series to machine learning. Time-series methods (ARIMA, exponential smoothing) forecast
Outputs include point forecasts of finishing times, probabilistic forecasts with prediction intervals, and risk estimates such
Applications include pacing strategy design, training plan adjustments, and event logistics. Challenges include individual variability, data