basisscenario

Basisscenario is a forecasting concept used in planning, risk assessment, and policy analysis. It describes the expected development of a system under current conditions and without new policy interventions. The term is commonly used in German-speaking contexts and is often translated as baseline or reference scenario. A basisscenario typically outlines assumptions about drivers such as demographic change, technology progress, price trends, regulatory environments, and market behavior to project key variables (for example emissions, energy demand, economic growth, or transport activity) over a defined time horizon.

Construction and use. The basisscenario combines these drivers into a coherent projection, usually produced with quantitative models and accompanied by a narrative of the expected evolution. It is distinguished from alternative scenarios that include additional policies, technological changes, or external shocks. Its primary role is to serve as a reference point against which other scenarios can be compared.

Applications. Basisszenarien are used across disciplines, including climate change impact assessment, energy system planning, transportation and urban development, and financial or risk forecasting. Analysts use them to estimate the marginal impact of interventions, to gauge sensitivity to assumptions, and to communicate expected trends under business-as-usual conditions.

Limitations. The basisscenario depends on subjective assumptions and chosen modeling methods, which can bias results if not carefully documented. It is not a prediction of the future, and it should be updated regularly as new data and policies emerge.

Examples. In climate policy, continuing current policies yields a basisscenario; in energy forecasting, projection of demand with the current technology mix and fuel prices also represents a basisscenario.