Tumorrisiken

Tumorrisiken is a theoretical construct used in oncology to describe a composite estimate of overall tumor risk for individuals or populations. The term combines the ideas of tumor development and risk assessment and is used to express multifactorial cancer risk as a single metric or score.

In principle, Tumorrisiken integrates multiple factors known to influence cancer development. These include genetic predisposition (germline variants and family history), somatic mutations and epigenetic changes, environmental exposures (carcinogens), and lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol use, diet, physical activity), along with demographic variables such as age and sex. Medical history, including prior cancers or premalignant conditions, may also contribute to the assessment.

Calculation of Tumorrisiken is typically expressed as a probability or a relative/composite score. Models may provide absolute risk over a defined horizon (for example 5, 10, or 20 years) or compare risk relative to a reference population. Input data can include genetic testing results (pathogenic variants and polygenic risk scores), family history, quantified exposures, and other health indicators. The output is used to guide risk stratification and decision-making in screening and prevention contexts.

Applications and limitations: Tumorrisiken is discussed mainly in research, theoretical, or exploratory settings rather than as a universally standardized clinical metric. Its usefulness depends on data quality, population representativeness, and model validity. Ethical considerations involve genetic risk disclosure, privacy, and potential discrimination. In practice, Tumorrisiken complements established measures such as lifetime risk and interval-specific absolute risk, as well as polygenic risk scores, rather than replacing them.