Technoscenarios

Technoscenarios are narrative and analytic projections of future states in which technology and society are tightly interwoven. They are used in futures studies and science and technology studies to explore how emerging technologies might shape social institutions, political power, economic organization, and everyday life, as well as how social choices, norms, and governance structures may steer technological development. Technoscenarios can take the form of scenario narratives, quantitative models, or hybrid methods that combine storytelling with data-driven projections.

Methodologically, technoscenarios bring together technical experts, social scientists, policymakers, and stakeholders to map possible trajectories of technology deployment, regulatory environments, market conditions, and cultural acceptability. They emphasize socio-technical networks, including infrastructures, standards, and institutions, and they draw on tools from scenario planning, risk assessment, and participatory design. The aim is to illuminate diverse futures, reveal assumptions, and highlight leverage points for policy or design interventions.

Applications span energy systems, digital governance, biotechnology, urban experiments, climate engineering, and other domains where technology and society co-evolve. They are used to assess risks, compare policy options, and anticipate ethical, legal, and social implications, such as equity, privacy, and governance challenges.

Critiques note that technoscenarios can embed biases or normative commitments, risk overconfidence in particular trajectories, and may underrepresent uncertainty. Proponents argue that when developed transparently and inclusively, technoscenarios help reveal how choices today shape possible futures and foster resilient, reflective decision-making.