Skenaariumianalüüsi

Skenaariumianalüüsi, known in English as scenario analysis or scenario planning, is a strategic planning method used to explore and understand future possibilities. It involves developing plausible future situations or "scenarios" that describe a range of potential outcomes. The primary goal is not to predict the future accurately, but rather to anticipate a set of possible futures and to prepare an organization or individual for them.

The process typically begins by identifying key driving forces that are likely to shape the future. These forces can be economic, social, technological, environmental, or political. Once identified, these forces are analyzed for their uncertainties and their potential impact. Next, combinations of these uncertain driving forces are used to construct a limited number of distinct and plausible scenarios, often ranging from optimistic to pessimistic. Each scenario is then fleshed out with details to create a narrative that describes a coherent and logical future state.

Once the scenarios are developed, they are used for analysis and decision-making. This can involve assessing the potential impact of each scenario on current strategies, identifying potential risks and opportunities, and developing contingency plans or adaptive strategies. Skenaariumianalüüsi helps to foster flexible thinking, challenge assumptions, and improve resilience by encouraging proactive preparation for a variety of future conditions rather than relying on a single forecast. It is widely used by businesses, governments, and non-profit organizations to navigate uncertainty and make more robust strategic choices.