Scenarijaus

Scenarijaus refers to a thought experiment or scenario that aims to explore the implications of complex decision-making paradigms. Derived from the Lithuanian word for'scenario', the concept typically involves exploring hypothetical scenarios to consider the potential outcomes of adopting specific policies or making particular decisions.

A characteristic of scenarijaus is that it typically involves a combination of simulation and dynamical systems thinking. Participants in a scenarijaus experiment or workshop construct a complex system to be the subject of the scenario, integrating different stakeholders and determining relevant data and parameters. Various hypothetical scenarios are then generated, and these are typically applied using one or more dynamic models.

The purpose of running a scenarijaus is multifaceted. It can be used to achieve a nuanced understanding of the variables involved in policymaking, fostering strategic foresight. By paying particular attention to time or time-series dynamics, a scenarijaus formulation seeks to predict and assess outcomes and implications. It is also employed as a mechanism to explore potential tensions between value objectives, revealing specific trade-offs and dilemmas associated with policy implementation or implementation of various technology-related initiatives. Enterprises involved in transformations or planning-based work often use these inherent techniques as a part of strategic planning rounds.

Common applications of scenarijaus are associated with feasibility assessments of critical transitions within urban social and material utilization systems.