Recidivrisk

Recidivrisk is a term used in criminology and correctional psychology to describe the estimated likelihood that an individual with a criminal history will commit new offenses after release or conviction. It expresses probabilistic risk rather than certainty and is used to inform decisions about supervision, treatment, and resource allocation within the criminal justice system.

Risk assessment combines static factors, which do not change over time (such as age at first offense and prior criminal history), with dynamic factors (which can change, such as employment status, substance use, mental health, and social support). Structured tools and actuarial models synthesize these factors to produce an overall risk estimate. Examples of commonly used tools include Static-99R for sexual offense risk, the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) for general recidivism risk, and the historical–clinical–risk management-20 (HCR-20). Validity and applicability vary across populations, and assessments are continually refined to improve accuracy and reduce bias.

Applications of recidivrisk assessments include decisions about parole and probation levels, supervision intensity, and targeting of interventions (like substance abuse treatment, employment assistance, or cognitive-behavioral programs). They are also used to inform policy and program evaluation and to plan risk management strategies, including monitoring and support upon release. Reassessment over time is common as circumstances change.

Limitations and ethical considerations accompany recidivrisk use. Critics warn of potential bias, overreliance on scores, and stigmatization, especially for marginalized groups. Responsible use emphasizes fairness, transparency, avoidance of determinism, and integration with risk-need-responsivity approaches that tailor interventions to criminogenic needs and the individual’s capacity for change. See also recidivism, risk assessment, and criminal justice reform.