Prognoze

Prognoze, or prognosis in English, denotes a forecast of the likely course and outcome of a condition or event based on available information. The term derives from the Greek prognōsis, meaning knowledge beforehand, and is used across disciplines to describe expected developments rather than certainties.

In medicine, prognosis estimates the likely future trajectory of a disease, including survival, remission, or progression. Clinicians consider factors such as patient age, disease stage, biology, and comorbidities, and they express prognosis as a time horizon (for example, five-year survival) or as probabilistic risk percentages. Prognostic information helps guide treatment choices, monitoring, and discussions with patients and families.

In meteorology, prognoses or forecasts describe the expected weather over short to medium terms, expressed as probabilities for precipitation, temperature, wind, and severe weather. Forecasts rely on observational data and numerical models, and uncertainty is communicated through probability statements or scenario ranges. Forecast accuracy improves with data quality, model resolution, and assimilation of new information.

In economics and public policy, prognoses project variables such as growth, inflation, and unemployment under various scenarios. These outlooks inform planning, budgeting, and risk management, and are often revised as new data become available or as assumptions change.

Methodologically, prognoze rely on data, models, and assumptions, ranging from statistical risk scores and survival analyses to computational simulations. Limitations include data quality, model misspecification, and inherent randomness, underscoring that prognoses represent conditional estimates rather than guarantees.