prognosis

Prognosis is the forecast of the likely progression and outcome of a disease or condition. It addresses the expected course, chances of recovery or cure, risk of relapse or progression, and survival over a defined period. Prognosis is distinct from diagnosis, which identifies the disease; prognosis assumes a diagnosis has been made and is influenced by numerous variables, including disease stage, biology, patient age, and comorbidities.

Clinical prognosis relies on data from studies and individual factors. Prognostic factors include disease stage and severity, response to treatment, performance status, and organ function. Prognostic models and risk scores, as well as survival analyses, are used to estimate probabilities of different outcomes. Time horizons vary, with short-term prognosis focusing on weeks to months and long-term prognosis on years or lifetime expectancy. In cancer, prognosis is commonly expressed as the likelihood of survival at defined intervals or the probability of remission.

Prognosis is inherently uncertain and can change with treatment, disease evolution, or new information. Communicating prognosis requires care to reflect the best available evidence and to avoid implying certainty where none exists. It is usually presented with explicit time frames and, when appropriate, ranges or confidence estimates.

In clinical practice, prognosis informs decisions about treatment intensity, monitoring, and palliative care, and aids patient counseling and planning. The concept also applies in veterinary medicine and other fields, where similar estimates of likely outcomes guide care and decision-making.