prognoses

Prognoses (plural of prognosis) are statements about the likely future course and outcome of a patient’s disease or condition. They synthesize information from medical history, diagnostic findings, disease stage, biomarkers, and response to treatment to estimate outcomes such as survival, progression, and functional status. Prognoses are probabilistic rather than certain, often expressed as percentages, ranges, or risk scores.

In clinical practice, prognoses guide decisions about treatment plans, monitoring, and discussions with patients about expectations and goals. Prognostic factors include age, comorbidities, performance status, tumor biology, treatment modalities, and patient preferences. Common types include overall prognosis, disease-specific prognosis, and short-term versus long-term outlook. Prognostic models or tools—such as survival curves or nomograms—combine multiple factors to provide individualized estimates.

Prognoses rely on historical data from clinical trials and patient registries, and are subject to uncertainty, changes in treatment, and population differences. Effective communication requires transparency about uncertainty, avoiding deterministic language, and aligning information with patient values. Ethical considerations include avoiding false hope and balancing honesty with compassion, especially in serious illnesses.

In nonmedical contexts, the term prognosis is less common but can appear in meteorology or economics to describe anticipated outcomes.