Perusennuste

Perusennuste, or base forecast, is a forecast used in planning that represents the most likely development of a variable under current policies and typical conditions. It serves as the baseline for budgeting, financial planning, and performance assessment, and is used to compare actual outcomes and to evaluate the impact of potential policy changes or investments.

In Finnish practice, perusennuste is prepared by finance or planning functions in both private companies and the public sector, including municipalities and state agencies. It relies on historical data, recent trends, and macroeconomic assumptions such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, as well as sector- or project-specific drivers.

Construction of a perusennuste combines quantitative methods with expert judgment. The forecast horizon is typically one to three years, sometimes longer, and the base forecast assumes policy continuity and normal conditions. Inputs include revenue volumes, price levels, wage development, operating costs, and capital expenditure, all adjusted for known factors and seasonal patterns where relevant.

Use and interpretation: the perusennuste serves as a reference against which actual results are measured. It forms the basis for scenario analyses, enabling the creation of optimistic and pessimistic variants and helping determine what actions would be needed to reach targets.

Limitations: the accuracy of a perusennuste depends on the quality of data and the validity of underlying assumptions. Unforeseen shocks, such as economic downturns or regulatory changes, can reduce its reliability. Nonetheless, it remains a central planning tool for coordinating budgeting, resource allocation, and strategic decisions.