Futurehows

Futurehows is a practice within futures studies that combines data analysis, expert elicitation, and narrative scenario building to explore potential trajectories of technology, society, and the environment. It emphasizes pluralism over single forecasts, producing a set of plausible futures to inform strategy and policy.

Core methods include horizon scanning to identify signals of change, trend analysis to project drivers, weak signal analysis, cross-impact analysis to map interactions, and scenario planning to develop coherent narratives. Outputs typically consist of several distinct futures—probable, possible, preferable, and chaotic—designed to test strategies against diverse conditions. The approach often uses backcasting to connect desired outcomes with current actions.

Users span corporate planning, government and public sector, NGOs, and academic research. It is used in product development, risk assessment, infrastructure planning, and education to teach systems thinking and uncertainty.

Futurehows exercises result in narrative scenarios, indicators dashboards, and strategic options, including early warning signals and contingency plans.

Limitations include inherent uncertainty, potential bias in elicitation and framing, and dependence on the quality of signals. Critics caution against overconfidence and suggest complementing Futurehows with quantitative modeling.

See also futures studies, scenario planning, trend analysis.