Frostrisiko

Frostrisiko, or frost risk, is the probability of frost events and their potential impacts on agriculture, infrastructure and ecosystems. It arises from cold air masses, radiative cooling at night, and the formation of frost on the ground. The term is used in Nordic and European contexts to describe both short-term events and longer-term exposure driven by climate variability.

Assessment and indicators: Meteorological data record overnight minimum temperatures, frost days (days with temperatures below 0°C), and hours of sub-freezing conditions. Soil temperature and ground frost contribute to overall risk. Frost risk is often shown in probabilistic forecasts or risk maps for a given date and location. Vulnerability is crop- and site-specific; fruit and vegetable crops are particularly sensitive.

Impacts: Frost can cause tissue damage in plants, reducing yields and quality, and can affect flowering and bud set. In infrastructure, frost can stress pipelines and road surfaces, increasing maintenance costs. Forestry and natural ecosystems may suffer shoot or bud damage, with knock-on effects on growth and biodiversity.

Mitigation and adaptation: Forecasts and early warnings are central to planning. Protective measures include row covers, heated enclosures, wind machines, and overhead sprinkler irrigation to form latent heat. Longer-term options include crop choice, planting schedules, soil management, and insurance. Climate trends may alter frost frequency and intensity, requiring local adaptation strategies.