Ennustejakso

Ennustejakso is a term used in statistics, forecasting and business planning to denote the future time span for which forecasts are produced. It represents the forecast horizon or projection period and is defined by the needs of decision making and the frequency of data.

The length of the ennustejakso is expressed in time units such as days, weeks, months or years. The choice depends on the planning cycle and the level of detail required. For example, a company that prepares monthly budgets for the next 12 months uses a 12-month ennustejakso.

Key characteristics of the ennustejakso include how forecast accuracy typically changes with horizon length. Shorter horizons generally yield more accurate forecasts, while uncertainty grows as the horizon extends. Different forecasting methods may be appropriate for different parts of the horizon, and in some cases multiple scenarios or probabilistic forecasts are used to capture uncertainty over a long ennustejakso.

Applications of the concept appear across fields such as corporate budgeting, sales forecasting, inventory management, energy demand planning and macroeconomic projections. The ennustejakso is often fixed for a forecast cycle but can be revised as new data become available.

Related concepts include forecast horizon, lead time, training or historical data window, and prediction intervals. Limitations of relying on a long ennustejakso include increased dependence on assumptions and model choice, making scenario analysis and sensitivity testing important tools.