Aikataulurisk

Aikataulurisk is a term used in project management to describe the risk that a planned schedule may not be realized due to uncertainties in task durations, dependencies, and resource availability. The word blends aikataulu, Finnish for schedule, with risk, signaling a scheduling-focused form of project risk. While not as widely standardized as other risk categories, aikataulurisk is used to discuss the probability distribution of completion times and the factors that push the project outside its timeline.

Causes include optimistic estimates, incorrect critical-path assumptions, resource constraints, late deliveries, changes in scope, and external factors such as weather or regulatory delays. The impact can include delays, cost overruns, and adverse service or market implications.

Measurement often employs probabilistic scheduling methods such as PERT and Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the likelihood that milestones or the final deadline will be met. Indicators include schedule variance (SV), schedule performance index (SPI), and the probability of on-time completion. Mitigation strategies include improving estimate accuracy, decomposing tasks, adding buffers, robust dependency management, scenario planning, and reserve funds for schedule contingencies. Techniques like critical chain project management, fast-tracking, or crashing may be used where appropriate.

In practice, aikataulurisk is one component of overall project risk and is managed within a risk management plan, often alongside budget risk, technical risk, and resource risk. It is closely related to schedule risk assessments and is assessed through regular review of dependencies, progress, and uncertainty in task durations.