yleisöennusteen

Yleisöennusteen (genitive of yleisöennuste) refers to forecasts or predictions produced by a broad audience rather than by professional experts. It describes crowdsourced or collective judgments gathered from non-specialists through public participation, online platforms, surveys, or prediction markets. The concept is often framed as a form of crowdsourcing applied to forecasting.

Methods and evaluation commonly associated with yleisöennuste include aggregating individual forecasts to form a single group forecast. Simple averaging, weighted averages based on past accuracy, and more complex statistical or machine learning techniques are used to combine diverse opinions. The reliability of the resulting forecast is often assessed with calibration and accuracy measures, such as historical Brier scores or other error metrics, and the value of diversity and independence among respondents is emphasized.

Relation to the wisdom of crowds is central. Proponents argue that, under conditions of diversity, independence, and decentralization, a large group can outperform individuals, including experts, in certain forecasting tasks. Critics point to biases, nonrepresentative samples, manipulation risks, information cascades, and overconfidence, noting that outcome quality depends on platform design, question framing, and participant incentives.

Applications and limits vary by context. yleisöennusteen is discussed in areas such as political and economic forecasting, market anticipation, sports predictions, and other domains where broad opinion or dispersed information can contribute to forecasting. However, its accuracy is not guaranteed, and it is often used in combination with expert analysis rather than as a standalone method. In Finnish discourse, the term denotes public or crowdsourced forecasting more than formal professional predictions.