tilbudsprognoser

Tilbudsprognoser are forecast estimates prepared by contracting authorities in public procurement to gauge the expected level of competition and potential price development in a forthcoming tender. The purpose is to support planning, resource allocation, and strategic decisions about how a procurement should be conducted, including the choice of procedure, timelines, and whether market dialogue or prequalification is appropriate.

A typical tilbudsprognose includes the expected number of bidders, an indicative price range or estimated bid level, the estimated contract value, the chosen procurement procedure, and risk factors such as market fragmentation or supplier capacity. It draws on market research, historical data from similar contracts, supplier feedback, and current market conditions. The forecast is usually reviewed and updated during the planning phase as new information becomes available, ensuring it reflects evolving market realities.

In practice, tilbudsprognoser inform several procurement decisions. They help determine whether an open, restricted, or negotiated procedure is most suitable, influence the design of the contract and evaluation criteria, and guide timelines for responses and award. They may also shape decisions about market engagement activities, such as market consultations or PIN notices in EU contexts.

Limitations of tilbudsprognoser include inherent uncertainty and potential biases in data or assumptions. They are internal planning tools, not guarantees, and must be used in a way that maintains equal treatment, transparency, and compliance with applicable procurement laws.