scenariosanalys

Scenariosanalys, often translated as scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method used to explore and understand potential future developments. It involves creating a set of plausible, internally consistent narratives about how the future might unfold, considering key uncertainties and driving forces. The goal is not to predict the future with certainty, but rather to anticipate a range of possible futures, thereby enhancing preparedness and adaptability.

The process typically begins with identifying the focal issue or strategic question. This is followed by pinpointing critical uncertainties – factors that are important to the future and whose outcomes are unknown. These uncertainties are then combined to develop a limited number of distinct, plausible scenarios, often representing contrasting possibilities. Each scenario is fleshed out with a narrative that describes the context, key drivers, and their implications.

Scenariosanalys helps organizations to identify potential risks and opportunities, test strategies against different futures, and foster more robust decision-making. It encourages a broader perspective beyond a single forecast, allowing for the development of flexible strategies that can perform well across a variety of potential outcomes. This method is widely used in business, government, and non-profit sectors to navigate complex and uncertain environments.