releasekansen

Releasekansen is a term used in criminology and policy discussions in Dutch-speaking contexts to denote the estimated probability that an incarcerated person will be released from custody, usually through parole or other forms of early release. The concept is employed by parole boards, prison administrators, and policymakers to inform decisions, plan supervision, and allocate resources. It may also feature in risk assessments intended to balance public safety with rehabilitation goals.

Calculation of releasekansen typically relies on historical data from comparable cases and may use statistical or machine learning methods. Common approaches include survival analysis or logistic regression, sometimes augmented by more complex models. Inputs often encompass offense severity, sentence length and time served, disciplinary history, participation in rehabilitation programs, age, prior offending history, and indicators of social support or housing prospects. The resulting estimate is presented as a probability or a set of performance bands that help guide decision making.

In practice, releasekansen are used as one element among many in parole and release planning. They are intended to support objective assessment while recognizing that a wide range of individual and contextual factors influence outcomes. However, they raise ethical considerations, including potential biases from historical data, differential impact on groups, and the risk of overreliance on quantitative scores without qualitative judgment.

See also: parole, risk assessment, recidivism, actuarial justice.