referenssiskenaario

A referenssiskenaario, or reference scenario, is a hypothetical situation used as a baseline for comparison or analysis. It represents a plausible future state or condition against which alternative scenarios or potential outcomes are evaluated. The primary purpose of a reference scenario is to establish a foundation of understanding by outlining a future that is likely to occur if current trends and policies continue without significant intervention or change.

In practice, reference scenarios are employed across various fields, including climate change modeling, economic forecasting, urban planning, and technology development. For example, in climate science, a reference scenario might depict projected greenhouse gas emissions and their resulting temperature increases under a "business-as-usual" approach, where no new climate policies are enacted. This allows researchers to then compare the impacts of different mitigation and adaptation strategies against this baseline.

The development of a reference scenario typically involves identifying key drivers of change, extrapolating current trends, and making assumptions about future developments. It aims to be realistic and internally consistent, providing a credible starting point for exploring uncertainty and the potential impacts of different policy choices or external shocks. By clearly defining what might happen without specific action, reference scenarios help stakeholders make informed decisions and assess the effectiveness of proposed interventions. They are not predictions of the future but rather plausible pathways that inform strategic planning and risk assessment.