overforecast
Overforecast refers to a forecast that exceeds the actual outcome, indicating a systematic bias in which predicted values are higher than what is observed. It is used in a variety of fields where forecasting is essential, including meteorology, demand planning, finance, and energy management.
Causes of overforecasting include model bias and incorrect inputs, overreliance on worst-case scenarios, overfitting to historical
Forecast accuracy is commonly assessed with error metrics. A positive mean forecast error (MFE) or mean bias
Consequences of overforecasting include higher inventory costs and waste, unnecessary capacity or resource allocation, and potential