klimatattribution

Climate attribution is a field of climate science focused on determining the causes of observed climate changes and variability. It aims to separate contributions from natural variability, human activities—most notably greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, and land-use change—and natural forcing factors such as volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations.

Methods rely on detection and attribution studies that combine climate models, observations, and statistical analysis. Detection seeks to identify a climate signal in the data, while attribution tests whether observed changes can be explained by different forcing scenarios, typically by comparing ensembles of simulations with and without human emissions. The field also includes event attribution, which estimates how anthropogenic forcing has altered the probability or intensity of specific events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfall.

Findings across the globe show a clear human influence on recent climate trends. The long-term warming since the mid-20th century is extremely likely to be predominantly caused by human activities, especially greenhouse gas emissions. Natural factors contribute to year-to-year and regional variability but do not explain the overall trend. At the regional and event level, attribution is more uncertain and depends on data quality and natural variability, though some extreme events have robust links to human influence.

History and scope: The discipline emerged in the late 20th century, and major assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesize the evidence. Attribution relies on climate models allowing simulations with various forcings, paleoclimate information, and observational datasets of temperature, precipitation, and other variables. Ongoing work expands regional attribution and refines methods.

Limitations and challenges include uncertainties in natural variability, aerosol forcing, cloud feedbacks, and regional climate processes. Ongoing research aims to improve model fidelity, data coverage, and the ability to attribute complex changes and a wider range of extreme events.