inkomstrisk

Inkomstrisk is a concept used in economics and public policy to describe the exposure of individuals or households to fluctuations in their disposable income over time. It captures the likelihood and size of income losses due to factors such as unemployment, reductions in hours or wages, variability in self-employment income, and changes in transfer payments or taxes. The term emphasizes flow of income rather than accumulated wealth and is closely related to concerns about living standards, consumption smoothing, and poverty vulnerability.

Measurement and components of income risk typically rely on longitudinal income data. Common approaches include estimating the variance or dispersion of affordable income over a planning horizon, the probability of falling below a poverty or minimum-income threshold, and the persistence or transience of income shocks. Researchers also assess how much of income risk is absorbed by social transfers, savings, or credit, and how labor market characteristics—such as job security, hours flexibility, and wage volatility—affect risk levels.

Determinants of inkomstrisk include labor market institutions, unemployment insurance generosity, tax and transfer design, and the prevalence of flexible or informal work. Household factors such as size, dependents, and access to savings or credit also influence exposure to income shocks. Macroeconomic conditions and sector mix further shape overall risk.

Policy relevance centers on mitigating income risk through automatic stabilizers, unemployment benefits, earned income tax credits, minimum income schemes, and active labor market policies. Debates around universal basic income and social protection reforms often hinge on assessments of inkomstrisk and the adequacy of existing safeguards.