felscenario

Felscenario is a neologism used in some interdisciplinary contexts to describe a structured method for exploring possible futures by integrating field-based observations with scenario-based forecasting. There is no widely accepted formal definition, and usage varies across sources.

Etymology: The term appears to be a compound of field-related concepts and scenario construction, or possibly an acronym. There is no consensus on its precise origin or intended full form.

Definition and methodology: A felscenario combines empirical field data—such as measurements, local knowledge, and on-site assessments—with narrative and quantitative scenario construction. Typical steps include defining scope and drivers, collecting data, developing contrasting future pathways, integrating models with qualitative assessments, and evaluating implications under uncertainty.

Applications and scope: Used in environmental science, urban planning, disaster risk management, and corporate risk assessment to test resilience and inform policy and strategy. It is most often applied where local context matters and data streams are heterogeneous or incomplete.

Benefits and limitations: Proponents argue that felscenarios ground futures in observable data and enhance stakeholder relevance; critics point to a lack of standardization, potential bias in narrative elements, and challenges in reproducibility across cases.

Relation to related concepts: The approach is related to scenario planning, futures studies, and impact assessment but is distinguished by its emphasis on incorporating field-derived data as a core input.

See also: Scenario planning; Futures studies; Impact assessment; Risk analysis.