conjuncturen

Conjunctuur, in singular or conjunctuur, is a term used in economics to describe the short- to medium-term fluctuations in overall economic activity around a longer-term growth trend. The concept distinguishes cyclical movements in GDP, employment, investment, and production from the secular trend of potential output. In practice, conjunctuur are observed as alternating phases of expansion and contraction.

A typical conjunctuur cycle includes four phases: an upswung expansion, a peak where activity is strongest, a downturn or recession, and a trough from which the next expansion begins. The duration of cycles varies by country and era, commonly spanning several quarters to a few years.

Key indicators used to assess conjunctuur include GDP growth, industrial production, employment or unemployment, consumer spending, and inflation, as well as capacity utilisation and business and consumer confidence. Statistical agencies and research institutes date peaks and troughs to identify cycle turns, often employing filtering methods or consensus dating.

The causes of conjunctuur are a mix of demand-side and supply-side factors, shocks to investment, credit conditions, monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and confidence. The literature separates theories emphasizing built-in demand fluctuations (Keynesian and monetarist perspectives) from real-business-cycle approaches, and recognizes historical cycle types such as inventory cycles or longer Kondratiev waves.

Policy relevance lies in conjunctuurbeleid, or countercyclical policy, aimed at dampening downturns and preventing overheating during expansions. Instruments include fiscal stimulus, automatic stabilizers, and monetary policy.

In practice, conjuncturen differ across economies and over time, reflecting structural change and global linkages. See also: business cycle, macroeconomics, indicators.