conjunctuur

Conjunctuur is a Dutch term used in macroeconomics to describe the short-term fluctuations of an economy around its long-term growth path. It encompasses cycles of expansion and contraction in real economic activity, typically measured by real GDP, industrial output, and employment. The trajectory consists of phases: an expansion (growth accelerates), a peak (maximum activity), a contraction or recession (slowdown), and a trough (lowest point), after which the cycle begins anew.

Economists monitor a range of indicators. Real GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and industrial production are central, while leading indicators such as consumer confidence, retail sales, and order books help anticipate turning points. The cycle is influenced by demand and supply factors, monetary and fiscal policy, external demand (trade), financial conditions, and technological or structural changes. Shocks can be demand-driven (recession) or supply-driven (oil price shock).

Policy relevance: conjunctuur analysis guides stabilization policy aiming to reduce unemployment and smooth inflation. Central banks and governments may implement countercyclical measures in downturns or withdraw stimulus in booms.

Measurement: dating business cycles is imprecise; institutions identify peaks and troughs and compile indicators to produce conjunctuur forecasts (nowcasts and forecasts of GDP, unemployment, inflation). In Dutch contexts, conjunctuur research is common in public statistics offices and economic journals, and is often contrasted with trend or potential output.

The term is the equivalent of the English 'business cycle' or 'economic cycle,' but 'conjunctuur' is frequently used in Dutch-language policy and analysis.