Wahlanalysen

Wahlanalysen (election analyses) are systematic investigations of electoral outcomes and voter behavior. In political science, journalism, and the polling industry, Wahlanalysen seek to explain why results turned out as they did, who supported which parties, and how turnout affected outcomes. They cover national, regional, and local elections, and may compare across elections to identify trends, swings, and structural shifts such as party realignments or demographic changes.

Common data sources include pre-election opinion polls, exit polls, official election results, and demographic or census data. Analysts apply statistical methods such as regression models, turnout models, and swing analysis to estimate vote shares, project seat counts, or identify the magnitude of swings between elections. Post-election analyses often assess polling accuracy, sources of error, and the effects of campaigning, incumbency, coalitions, and regional variations.

Outputs include reports, articles, and media visualizations, used by voters, parties, journalists, and scholars to interpret results, gauge mandate, and plan strategy. They can also test theories about voter behavior, issue salience, and coalition formation. Limitations include sampling and nonresponse biases in polls, late-breaking events, social desirability bias, and methodological differences across polls or models, which can lead to systematic deviations from actual results. Transparency about data and methods is essential to evaluate Wahlanalysen.