Schätzungseffekt

The Schätzungseffekt, also known as the estimation effect, is a cognitive bias that occurs when people tend to overestimate the likelihood of rare events and underestimate the likelihood of common events. This bias is a result of the way people process and remember information. When faced with a new or unfamiliar event, individuals often rely on their existing knowledge and mental models to make predictions. However, these mental models are often based on past experiences and may not accurately reflect the true likelihood of future events.

The Schätzungseffekt can have significant implications in various fields, including psychology, economics, and public policy. For instance, in risk assessment, the Schätzungseffekt can lead to overreactions to rare but high-impact events, such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks. Conversely, it can result in underreactions to common but low-impact events, such as traffic accidents or minor health issues.

Researchers have identified several factors that contribute to the Schätzungseffekt, including the availability heuristic, which involves judging the frequency of events based on how easily examples come to mind, and the representativeness heuristic, which involves judging the likelihood of an event based on how well it fits with one's mental model of the world.

To mitigate the Schätzungseffekt, it is important to recognize its existence and to use more objective and systematic methods for assessing probabilities and risks. This can involve using statistical data, conducting surveys, and consulting with experts in the relevant field. Additionally, it is important to be aware of one's own cognitive biases and to seek out diverse perspectives and information when making decisions.