Scenarioselectie

Scenarioselectie, often translated as scenario selection or scenario screening, is a crucial process in strategic planning and forecasting. It involves identifying and evaluating a range of plausible future scenarios that could impact an organization, project, or policy. The goal is to move beyond a single, most likely future and instead consider a spectrum of possibilities, acknowledging inherent uncertainties.

The process typically begins with identifying key driving forces or uncertainties that are likely to shape the future. These forces can be economic, technological, social, political, environmental, or legal. Once identified, these drivers are used to construct distinct and internally consistent scenarios. Scenarioselectie then involves choosing a subset of these developed scenarios for further analysis and planning. This selection is usually based on criteria such as plausibility, impact, and relevance to the decision at hand.

The selected scenarios serve as a basis for strategic thinking, risk assessment, and the development of robust plans that can adapt to different futures. By considering a variety of potential outcomes, organizations can identify potential opportunities and threats, test the resilience of their strategies, and make more informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. It is a proactive approach to anticipating the future rather than reacting to it.