Scenariography

Scenariography is the art and practice of designing, developing, and structuring scenarios. It is a methodology used to explore potential futures, anticipate challenges, and identify opportunities. The core of scenariography involves creating plausible and internally consistent narratives that represent different possible outcomes of a system or situation. These scenarios are not predictions but rather tools for strategic thinking, planning, and decision-making.

The process typically begins with identifying a core question or strategic challenge. Researchers then identify key drivers of change, which are factors that are uncertain and have the potential to significantly impact the future. These drivers are often combined in different ways to create a matrix of potential scenarios. Each scenario is then fleshed out with a detailed narrative that describes the characteristics of that future, including its social, economic, technological, environmental, and political dimensions.

Scenariography is employed across various fields, including business strategy, public policy, disaster preparedness, and technological innovation. Organizations use it to test the robustness of their strategies against different future conditions, to foster creative thinking, and to communicate complex future possibilities. By exploring a range of plausible futures, scenariography helps stakeholders to develop more resilient and adaptable plans. It encourages a shift from linear thinking to a more dynamic understanding of how events can unfold.