Risikowege

Risikowege are sequences of events and conditions that can lead from an initial trigger to a hazardous outcome. The concept emphasizes causal pathways rather than isolated incidents, enabling risk analysts to trace how multiple factors interact over time to produce a risk. It is used in safety engineering, environmental risk assessment, and corporate risk governance, particularly within European practices that stress systemic risk and resilience.

Origins and usage: While the exact term Risikowege is not standardized in international standards, it is common in German- and Polish-language literature to describe networks of causal links in risk scenarios. It complements methods such as fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, bow-tie diagrams, and scenario planning. Practitioners map Risikowege by identifying initiating events, intermediate failures, and control measures, then assess the likelihood and consequence for each path.

Methodology: Analysis typically involves listing potential initiating events, constructing cause-and-effect chains, and evaluating probability and consequence along each path. Tools used include fault trees, event trees, influence diagrams, and simple quantitative models. Risk reduction measures are linked to specific nodes or branches to reduce likelihoods or mitigate consequences.

Applications and limitations: Risikowege help prioritize safety measures, design redundancies, and support decision-making under uncertainty. They can be challenged by complex interdependencies, variable data quality, and evolving system dynamics, which require regular updates and scenario revalidation.

See also: risk assessment, hazard analysis, fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, bow-tie model, scenario planning.